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Afternoon Forecast/Discussion 4/18/2024: 70s, Storms and a Sinking Feeling About the Temps

Good afternoon, Cardinal Country! We have one more April-like day ahead before some potentially stronger storms affect the area late tonight, but the overall story about this afternoon is that we should see a gradual increase in high & mid-level clouds as time goes on towards the evening hours. The current thinking is that we hold off on the thicker clouds until the late afternoon since the better lift/moisture for those to form doesn’t arrive until then. That comes along with a low-pressure system that will be moving in overnight, and due to some ingredients for it being present along with the low, a marginal / level 1 of 5 risk of severe weather is in effect for late tonight, according to the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC).

Currently, we are awaiting an update from the SPC about any new changes to the risk area. Still, the latest data is consistent with our area coming up short of ingredients needed to deliver a more substantial threat for severe storms, and the marginal risk looks to stay. We use an acronym known as S.L.I.M (standing for Shear, Lift, Instability & Moisture) to define what we need on the kitchen table (if you will) to cook up severe storms. Right now, the lift and shear are not well positioned/out of phase with our instability and moisture, and our instability looks meager. That being said, the weather can change, and we will update you accordingly!

-Cardinal Weather Service Forecaster Ryan Hill-

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