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5-day Forecast 3/31-4/04/2023: Moderate Risk Upgrade, Spring Has Sprung, Another Chance of Severe Ahead

Hello Cardinal Country! Put your hands and feet inside the ride at all times, because the ride over the next 5 days will be wild! As for today, we are seeing some sun break through even as this is written (expected to wait several hours longer for some breaks in the clouds). While that makes the day more pleasant, we risk adding some instability on top of moving some more inherently unstable air in by bringing in the already warmed air but also more saturated from the south. We currently have a MODERATE (Level 4 out of 5) severe weather risk in effect, and a significant severe thunderstorm wind event is now on the table Satellite data indicates more clearing should be underway through the afternoon(& possibly evening) hours, allowing the sun to get through and heat the surface of the earth, further destabilizing the air and giving it the ability to rise more freely from lower levels. We could see two waves, one with scattered cells that have more space between them that develop in the early evening hours carrying the threat of scattered damaging wind gusts and (possibly) the best potential to rotate -we’re in the 5% risk zone vs. the 2% earlier for some tornadoes as well). The second wave looks to be our main event with more numerous damaging wind gusts possible (this is the most significant threat as wind gusts of 75+mph are possible). These winds could be quite intense, and the storms themselves will be moving at a brisk pace (possibly around 60-70 mph of forward motion), so be prepared for rapidly changing conditions and act quickly should a warning be issued. Even when a watch is issued, think bout what you need to do ahead of time to get prepared! more info pertinent to severe weather safety in the state of Indiana available here: https://www.in.gov/dhs/get-prepared/nature-safety/severe-weather-preparedness/#Tips

Even outside of storms, winds could gust to around or above 50 mph, especially into Saturday morning, so before storms get here, secure loose outdoor objects & make sure nothing out there has a chance to become damaged. We cool down dramatically from an early high in the upper 40s midday to the mid-20s (!) as we clear out and winds-although breezy-should slacken off. Winds switch back around and high pressure becomes dominant over the weekend and into next week and we should rebound with 50s to 60s for highs on Sunday and Monday before we really warm up to the warmest temps we’ve had yet (possibly) with mid-70s on Tuesday(!!) This is set up by strong southerly winds out ahead of our next major weather system which looks to be our next big storm to watch (with preliminarily more to work with to make storms happen – we will keep close eyes on this next setup)! FLy & be safe, Cardinals, and be very careful this evening, treating severe thunderstorm warnings and tornado warnings with the same respect!

-Weather Forecaster Ryan Hill

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