Hello, Cardinal Country! Quite the active 5-day forecast period where we’re looking at one severe weather event and possibly the buildup into another! Got a very nice day ( and nice afternoon temperature compared to this morning) as we have brought southerly winds into the region to help bring in warmer air on top of the sunshine already helping that cause. We should get into the upper 50s with some 60s possible to the south as we continue to bring that warm air north. Those winds should strengthen out of the southeast & become gusty as we work our way through tonight into tomorrow with some showers & embedded rumbles of thunder working their way through at that time with a warm front, but from there we’re looking at our main event as we close out the week (and the month).
We will have to watch how early these showers and storms clear the area, along with seeing how much we break up the clouds. Currently, the late afternoon to early evening looks like a possible time we could see that happen, but that possibility remains conditional on how much we break an inversion in the atmosphere (a layer of warm air trapping the clouds) by getting some warmer air at the surface & or getting the sun to do its thing through that layer of low-level clouds. There is a trend in the data that suggests that’s a maybe, but we will have to see! Our main event of storms looks to arrive close to 11 pm tomorrow and that could certainly come with some damaging wind (storm-related gusts 60+ mph) for our main threat. Some of the storms along this line could develop rotation for a few spinups, but this is a highly-conditional risk dependent on if we get more instability, moisture, and how that inversion behaves throughout the evening. The other threat is the wind, gusting 40-50+mph even outside of thunderstorms, and that sticks with us through the afternoon on Saturday. Because of the cold air blowing out of the NW behind that system and descending from upper levels, we do”t get too much warming (temps max out in the upper 40s)
Along with that wind Saturday, we still have the risk of showers from morning to possibly the afternoon with the departing low as there’s still some energy aloft, but that tapers partly cloudy skies as we work our way to the evening (wouldn’t be surprised if we clear sooner, however). We then bring a frontal boundary back north as a warm one as winds also switch Sunday into Monday, and my could temps soar! Temperatures in the mid-50s through upper 60s will be trending, and looking further out, we even have some groovy 70s in the forecast! We are watching another potent low-pressure system to generate a (potentially substantial) risk of severe weather as we work our way through Tuesday into Wednesday – We will watch that closely! Fly safe & stay tuned, Cardinal Country! Have multiple methods of finding watches, warnings, and weather statements as we head into tomorrow!
-Weather Forecaster Ryan Hill