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5-day Forecast 3/2-3/6/2023: Ride That Rollercoaster (of Weather)

This weather forecast might as well be a ride named, “Midwest Madness”

Good Midday, Municiana Region & Cardinal Country! Quite the “back to reality” sort of day as those upper 30s greeted us this morning. We have enough breaks in the clouds to warm things up a bit, but we look to finish out the day 20 degrees cooler than the May-like weather we had yesterday. We then look to a shot at some very heavy rain, strong winds, and maybe an isolated strong thunderstorm or two developing with a very potent low-pressure system (as deep or deeper in surface pressure at its center compared to Monday’s system) with a *Flood Watch* in effect from March 3rd at 1 AM to March 4th at 1 AM. We expect 2-3″ of rain within that time frame and perhaps a changeover to wintry precip (most likely snow) on the back side of the storm Friday night. At this time, it looks tricky to get accumulations with this backside activity, but I would not be surprised if some of that happens given the data this morning. However, the other big story is the turn back around to pleasant and warmer conditions through the weekend into…. SPRING BREEEAAAAAK!! We go from the 40s and 50s Saturday and Sunday respectively to mid and upper 60s (!) Monday before our next system affects our area. Beyond that and into the middle of march, we have to be aware that, although it is now the second day of meteorological spring, “Old Man Winter” may not be done with us just yet! (Gasp!) There are indications as well as global forecast models showing that a blocking high over Greenland will strengthen, and since the flow around that is anti-cyclonic (counterclockwise), that will help bolster some flow of polar air on its western side down through Canada into the Plains & Midwest in the middle of March, so be on the lookout – we will too! Fly safe, Cardinals, and remember – “Turn Around, Don’t Drown!” Should there be any flooding on the roads you take Friday, pick an alternate route!

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