Every year, Philadelphians rely on Punxsutawney Phil to predict the upcoming spring! There are only two options: If he sees his shadow, that means six more weeks of winter and if he doesn’t it means an early spring.
However, do you know how accurate the groundhog’s predictions are? Well you would be surprised to know that you have a better chance of trusting the Farmers’ Almanac rather than a groundhog. Even the Farmers’ Almanac has a 50% chance of being correct which isn’t too reliable as well.
It is stated in studies that the groundhog’s predictions are only right around 40% of the time meaning that its predictions are more likely to be incorrect that incorrect. This data is over a period of nearly 110 years which demonstrates that the groundhog isn’t so trustworthy after all.
For example, in 2018, our “beloved” Punxsutawney Phil predicted an early spring but that prediction would backfire tremendously. That year, snow continued well into March and April with cold temperatures trailing along with it as well.
Unfortunately, this has been the case with 6 of the past 10 winters with Phil’s predictions. Even in the last couple years when it was predicted for more snow, this would fail with an early spring being observed.
There have even been years where people tried to prosecute the groundhog himself for his predictions about winter. Obviously since he is a groundhog, its not possible for him to be brought in for questioning but however this has been the case with people wanting to bring him in for his lies.
Although the groundhog may be used to predict the weather for spring, there are far more reliable sources out there that can make better predictions such as the National Weather Service.