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Oh this is A Surprise!

Well as of 9 am Eastern Daylight time, just after the morning forecast, the guys at the Storm Prediction Center has issued a marginal risk of severe storms for tonight just south of Muncie, for an area including the entirety of Southern Indiana including the city of Indianapolis, extends as far east as Cincinnati, as far south as Louisville and Evansville, and as far north as Lafayette.

It will be a rainy evening in Muncie regardless as showers possible a rumble of thunder or two will be likely tonight. However, areas of Central and Southern Indiana will have to keep an eye out on strong single cells that are firing up in Illinois right now that has a good potential to strengthen and produce hail (likely to be below severe limits, nickel or smaller sized.) However the stronger cells have the chance to maybe produce quarter sized hail, which is why the SPC has placed a marginal risk for tonight. Now of course that doesn’t mean that every storm will see hail in them, but some storms has the potential to south of Muncie. For Muncie for now shouldn’t see anything but good ole rain but with the cut off line being so close to Muncie the situation will need some monitoring to see if storms will shift northward and if the SPC’s severe weather outlook will change.

The air is currently relatively stable right now and damaging winds and tornadoes are a non factor for tonight. Bulk shear high above in the atmosphere of 50 kts is possible this evening into tonight. Which is sufficient enough to produce updrafts in thunderstorms to produce at least small hail. Regardless of hail or not tonight well have to look out for some rain tonight through Saturday as already saturated soils will created the potential for lowland and localized flooding in areas as we hit an active stretch of weather tonight.

Tonight’s Hail probability outlook from the SPC

-CWS Forecaster- Ben Waggoner