Looking at the big picture this morning reveals an upper level trough moving through Minnesota/Wisconsin. This trough is responsible for the severe weather outbreaks and flooding over the past two days. Today the trough begins to eject toward the east allow the surface frontal boundary to pass through the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley region this afternoon and overnight bringing temporary relief from the heat and humidity.
Accompanying the front will be rain with a chance of a severe thunderstorm. The SPC has issued a marginal risk for Muncie in their outlook. The main threat from any severe storm will likely be in the form of damaging winds. Overall the chance for any severe weather is low but the chance still exists. Timing for the frontal passage will be between 1-9pm this evening with the best chance of storms between 2-5pm. The morning sounding out of Wilmington, Ohio shows very weak support for any chance of severe storms. The short range forecast model guidance also shows a downward trend in intensity of the rain this afternoon. IF clearing can occur before the main boundary moves through there will be a better chance of storms BUT as of this moment the clearing looks limited.
